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    NCR Voyix (VYX)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 7, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$11.71Last close (Feb 26, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$12.50Open (Feb 27, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.79(+6.75%)
    • Significant EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion Driven by Cost Initiatives: The company is implementing approximately $100 million in cost actions in 2025, with 70% around vendors and 30% related to headcount, leading to an expected adjusted EBITDA increase of 21% to 28% to range from $420 million to $445 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 16.3% to 16.8%. This substantial improvement reflects the company's efficiency initiatives and a focus on higher-margin recurring revenue streams. , ,
    • Entering Enterprise Payments Market Through Partnership with Worldpay: The company has entered into a 5-year nonexclusive agreement with Worldpay to provide payment solutions for enterprise customers, opening a significant new revenue opportunity. With over $500 billion in payments processed through their point-of-sale systems in the U.S. and 12 billion transactions a year, the company is now able to offer payment capabilities to both new and existing customers, beginning later this year. This expansion into payments is expected to drive additional revenue growth. , ,
    • Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Enhances Revenue Visibility and Margin Profile: The company is exiting low-margin hardware sales and certain one-time software licenses and services, aiming to improve recurring revenue composition from approximately 60% to 75%, and further to 80% recurring revenue after the ODM transition is complete. This shift to a subscription-based model is expected to result in more stable and predictable revenues, with recurring revenues expected to grow 4% to 5% in both retail and restaurants segments. , ,
    • Delays in the ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) transition due to technology challenges indicate execution risks and may impact the company's financial results. The transition, initially expected to be completed by the end of the year, is now anticipated to take well into the summer. ,
    • Reliance on significant cost-cutting measures, including $100 million in cost actions and headcount reductions, to offset revenue declines may impact future growth and operations. The company plans to take these actions primarily in the first quarter to improve EBITDA sequentially through the year.
    • Potential threat from retailers bringing point-of-sale software in-house, which could disrupt sales cycles and pose a challenge to the company's business model. While management believes this is not a widespread trend, it acknowledges that such moves by large retailers can impact the business.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Increased dramatically to $1,051 million from –$2,064 million

    A remarkable turnaround from a negative revenue figure in Q4 2023 indicates that previous operational challenges and adverse market conditions were addressed. The recovery likely reflects strategic adjustments and improved market performance, reversing issues that led to the severe negative revenue last period.

    Operating Income

    Improved significantly from –$463 million to –$34 million

    The vast reduction in operating losses signifies significant operational improvements and cost management strategies that mitigated the prior deep loss. This recovery in core earnings suggests that measures addressing the inefficiencies in Q4 2023 have had a pronounced impact.

    Net Income

    Loss narrowed from –$328 million to –$11 million with EPS from –$2.35 to –$0.1

    A substantial recovery in net income, reflected in the much smaller loss and improved EPS, demonstrates corrective actions in cost control and revenue enhancement that drastically improved the financial outcome compared to the previous period’s severe deficit.

    Cash Flow

    Net change in cash improved from –$2,728 million to –$67 million

    The dramatic improvement in cash flow indicates enhanced cash generation and management, with a shift from massive cash outflows in Q4 2023 to a minimal decline in Q4 2024. This suggests that previous liquidity pressures have been addressed through operational and financial realignment.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Currency-neutral revenue

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $2.575 billion to $2.65 billion, reflecting a 6% to 9% decline

    no prior guidance

    Core Software and Services revenue

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to grow in the low single digits

    no prior guidance

    ARR and Platform Sites

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to increase in the mid- to high single digits

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $420 million to $445 million

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA margin

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    16.3% to 16.8%

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Diluted EPS

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.75 to $0.80

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted Free Cash Flow Unrestricted

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $170 million to $190 million, excluding $55 million in restructuring, $300 million of taxes related to the digital banking sale, and $20 million of accelerated product investments

    no prior guidance

    Pro Forma Net Leverage Ratio

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    At or below two turns

    no prior guidance

    Q1 2025 Revenue

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to decline in the mid-teens due to a significant hardware refresh from a large retail customer in the prior year period

    no prior guidance

    Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to demonstrate high teens growth versus Q1 2024 reported results

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    FY 2024
    $2.805B to $2.860B
    2.826B calculated from Q1 2024: 862+ Q2 2024: 872+ Q3 2024: 41+ Q4 2024: 1051
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Recurring Revenue Model

    Emphasized throughout Q1–Q3 as the company transitioned from one‑time revenues (hardware, software licenses, services) to a recurring revenue mix with positive ARR growth and platform conversions

    Q4 maintained focus on shifting composition toward recurring revenue—with expected improvements from 60% to 75% (and ultimately 80%)—while noting some delays (ODM model not fully operational until later)

    Consistent focus on recurring revenue with overall positive sentiment, although Q4 reveals emerging caution due to ODM delays.

    Declining Hardware Sales

    Consistently highlighted across Q1–Q3 with declines driven by delayed customer refresh cycles, macroeconomic headwinds, and a strategic move toward exiting non‑recurring hardware revenue

    Q4 emphasized further declines (15% drop in retail segment and 14% company‑wide) and detailed the exit of onetime software licenses/services, underscoring the strategic transformation to improve recurring revenue mix

    Persistent challenge with declining hardware, now accompanied by sharper strategic exits and cost actions; sentiment remains cautious but transformation initiatives are in progress.

    Cost‑Cutting Measures

    Q1 through Q3 discussed aggressive cost‑cutting programs, including staff reductions, vendor efficiencies, and improvements in EBITDA margins through restructuring savings

    Q4 reported approx. $120 million of in‑year cost actions contributing to significant adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion (e.g., retail margin up by 560bps)

    Strong and increasingly positive performance; cost‑cutting measures continue to drive margin expansion with enhanced operational efficiency.

    Leverage Reduction

    Q1 outlined leverage reduction goals; Q2 initiated planned debt paydowns using Digital Banking proceeds; Q3 reported dramatic improvements (net leverage down to 1.6x)

    Q4 reaffirmed low net leverage (1.6x) with continued share repurchase activity and additional cost initiatives optimizing the balance sheet

    Financial health has improved markedly over the periods with successful deleveraging strategies; sentiment is very positive regarding balance sheet strength.

    Enterprise Payments

    Minimal or indirect mentions in Q1 and Q2; Q3 briefly outlined an integrated payments solution for enterprise clients without strong detail

    Q4 introduced a significant new development via a 5‑year partnership with Worldpay, highlighting a new revenue opportunity tied to a $500 billion U.S. payments volume and plans for global rollout

    Emerging as a new strategic growth area with optimistic sentiment; newly detailed in Q4 with strong potential to impact future revenue streams.

    Digital Banking Transformation

    Q1 focused on operating model realignment and growth; Q2 detailed the sale/divestiture agreement for $2.45 billion and strategic rationale; Q3 emphasized the completed divestiture and its positive financial impact

    Q4 discussed ongoing transition management post‑divestiture with attention to tax adjustments and infrastructure support through 2025, ensuring smooth customer handover

    A multi‑period transformation that is now largely complete; Q4 shifts emphasis toward managing transition effects and optimizing tax and operational outcomes, with a generally strategic and measured sentiment.

    ODM Transition Execution

    Q1 did not mention ODM challenges; Q2 acknowledged a 30% attribution of hardware guidance decline to ODM risks; Q3 did not call out specific execution issues

    Q4 provided detailed discussion of execution challenges—delays pushing transition into summer 2025, technology integration issues between SAP and Oracle, and wider operational implications

    An emerging concern in Q4; previously noted in risks but now detailed as execution challenges, shifting sentiment to caution regarding timeline and integration complexities.

    Self‑Checkout Solutions

    Q1 highlighted strong consumer demand for self‑checkout driven by unassisted trends and resurfacing projects; Q2 noted equal declines across POS and SCO refresh cycles; Q3 reported that self‑checkout demand remained resilient amid hardware downturn

    Q4 less detailed on variability but noted the launch of newest self‑checkout solutions across regions with an expectation of strong demand from both new and existing customers

    While earlier periods provided mixed signals, the current period leans toward product innovation and an optimistic outlook for self‑checkout solutions, suggesting sustained market potential.

    Platform Revenue Initiatives

    Limited commentary in Q1 and Q2; Q3 explicitly noted that improved platform subscription revenues had a modest impact on overall revenue, representing a small percentage of the mix

    Q4 did not specifically mention a “limited impact,” but overall platform contributions remain a smaller revenue segment (15% of software and services), despite robust site growth

    Continues to be a modest contributor; the initiatives show steady growth but their overall revenue impact remains limited in the near term, with cautious optimism for margin improvements over time.

    Transformation and Restructuring Costs Impacting Free Cash Flow

    Q1 acknowledged high transformation and restructuring costs (estimated $80–90 million annually) impacting free cash flow guidance; Q2 reported a quarter‑on‑quarter use of free cash flow due to these initiatives; Q3 noted transaction fees but limited focus on free cash flow impact beyond fees

    Q4 reported adjusted free cash flow of $72 million for the quarter before $27 million of restructuring expenditures, with full‑year targets excluding restructuring costs

    Persistent negative free cash flow impact from transformation costs is acknowledged consistently; while these expenses remain a headwind, they are expected to taper over time, indicating a measured outlook.

    Macroeconomic Weakness

    Q1 did not highlight macroeconomic issues; Q2 explicitly attributed a significant portion (70%) of the hardware guidance decline and delayed refresh cycles in retail and restaurant sectors to broader macroeconomic trends; Q3 referenced hardware market softness without direct macro commentary

    Q4 did not explicitly emphasize macroeconomic weakness; discussions focused more on strategic shifts and operational metrics rather than broader economic conditions

    Previously a notable concern in Q2, but less emphasized in Q4—suggesting either improved market sentiment or a strategic shift in focus away from macroeconomic narratives.

    1. New Payments Agreement
      Q: How will the new payments deal impact growth?
      A: CEO James Kelly highlighted a significant $500 billion market opportunity from the new payments agreement with Worldpay, expected to be live by the end of the summer. This deal opens a completely new revenue source for VYX, leveraging their software to offer payments, particularly in retail markets.

    2. Strategic Priorities Under New CEO
      Q: What are your priorities as the new CEO?
      A: Jim Kelly aims to accelerate growth by integrating payments with software, focusing on new customer acquisition, and executing on investments. He emphasized the importance of the Worldpay partnership and shifting towards subscription models to drive recurring revenue.

    3. Shift to Subscription Model
      Q: How does moving to subscriptions affect revenue?
      A: VYX is transitioning from software licensing to subscription models, impacting one-time license revenue but improving long-term visibility. CFO Brian Walsh noted an expected reduction of $60 million in one-time licensing revenue this year, with $30–40 million remaining by year-end.

    4. ODM Transition Delays
      Q: What's causing the ODM transition delay?
      A: The ODM cutover faced delays due to technology challenges, particularly integrating SAP and Oracle systems. This postpones the shift from gross to net hardware revenue recognition, affecting expectations set previously.

    5. Government Contract Details
      Q: Tell us about the new government contract.
      A: VYX secured a $335 million five-year government contract, representing incremental revenue starting to ramp towards the end of Q1. This extends a longstanding relationship with significant expansion.

    6. Hardware Outlook and Impact
      Q: How is hardware demand affecting revenue?
      A: Hardware revenue is expected to decline about 22%, as customers delay refreshes and large customer activities shift timing. Revenue declines are anticipated to moderate later in the year.

    7. Retail Market Environment
      Q: Are retailers unbundling POS solutions?
      A: CEO Jim Kelly acknowledged that while some large retailers attempt in-house solutions, it's challenging due to complexity and constant technological changes. VYX's investments in platform solutions and services position them well against this trend.

    8. Payments Revenue Model
      Q: How will payments contribute to revenue?
      A: The partnership with Worldpay allows VYX to offer integrated payments, tapping into 12 billion transactions annually . The new model is fee-for-service, enhancing margins as transaction volumes grow.

    9. ARR Growth vs. Reported Revenue
      Q: When will ARR growth reflect in revenue?
      A: As non-recurring revenue shrinks, recurring revenue growing at 4–5% will drive overall growth. Subscriptions, platform expansion, and payments will align ARR growth more closely with reported revenue over time.

    Research analysts covering NCR Voyix.